Reston Virginia Home Seller Guide

Introduction

Over the past five years, the real estate market in Reston, VA has largely mirrored the broader trends in Fairfax County, while exhibiting its own unique dynamics. Both markets experienced
surging home prices and brisk sales during the pandemic-era housing boom, followed by some cooling as interest rates rose. This report provides a detailed analysis of key
metrics – from median sale prices and appreciation rates to inventory levels, days on market, and demand trends – with an emphasis on single-family
homes (and notes on townhomes and condos). It also examines economic factors (like mortgage rates, employment, and inflation) shaping the market, highlights
upcoming 2025 developments that could influence home values, assesses the impact of school districts on property prices, and compares
rental market trends in Reston versus Fairfax County. The goal is to present clear, data-backed insights and takeaways for stakeholders interested in these markets.

Real Estate Market Metrics (2020–2024)

Home Prices and Appreciation

Home values in both Reston and Fairfax County climbed significantly from 2020 through 2022, driven by intense demand and limited supply. In 2020, amid historically
low mortgage rates, the Northern Virginia region (including Fairfax) saw a 9% jump in median sale price, from about $541,000 in 2019 to $590,000. This trend continued
into 2021 and 2022, with Fairfax County’s house price index rising roughly 7% in 2021 and 10% in 2022. By 2022, Fairfax County’s median sold price was around
$650,000, up from $594,500 in 2021.
Reston’s home values followed suit: for example, early 2024 data showed Reston’s median sale price about
$535,000 – an 17–18% increase year-over-year, reflecting the price acceleration during the pandemic boom.

Home price appreciation began to moderate in 2023 as interest rates rose, but remained positive. Fairfax County’s median price in 2023 was roughly
$680,000, up 4.6% from $650,000 in 2022. By December 2024, the median sale price in Fairfax County was about $700,000, a modest +4.5% year-over-year.
In Reston, the median price by late 2024 was around $588–$589K, essentially flat (+0.9% YoY) compared to a year prior. Overall,
single-family detached homes led price growth throughout the period, while condos appreciated more slowly. (For instance, in Fairfax County as of Dec 2022, the median
price of a single-family home was $829,627 vs. $313,671 for condos, after both segments saw ~3% annual gains in 2022.) This divergence showed how much
more competitive the market for detached houses became, as homebuyers in 2020–2022 prioritized space and were willing to pay a premium for single-family properties.

Table: Median Sale Price and Related Metrics (2024) for Reston vs. Fairfax County, illustrating recent values and trends:

*(Reston single-family median approximated from Fairfax data; Reston condo example from South Lakes HS district)*

Key observation: Between 2020 and 2022, Reston’s home prices saw double-digit annual gains, similar to Fairfax County’s overall trend. The price growth
was most pronounced in 2021–2022 when buyer competition was fiercest. By 2023–2024, price appreciation cooled to single digits as the market normalized. Notably,
Reston’s median prices remain slightly lower than Fairfax County’s median, partly because Fairfax includes some of the region’s priciest areas. In December 2024,
Reston’s median (~$589K) was about 16% below the county median (~$700K), reflecting Reston’s relatively more affordable mix of housing (including condos/townhomes)
compared to the county’s high-end markets.

Inventory Levels and Days on Market

A defining feature of 2020–2024 was historically low housing inventory. In both Reston and Fairfax County, the supply of homes for sale fell well below normal levels,
creating a persistent seller’s market. For example, months of supply in Reston was under 1 month in late 2023 (only 0.9 months in October 2023) – a drastic shortage
given that ~5–6 months is considered a balanced market. Fairfax County similarly hovered around 1–1.5 months of supply during 2021–2023, indicating extremely tight
inventory (by October 2022, Reston’s supply was down 36% YoY, and Fairfax County’s active listings were down as well).

This scarcity of listings meant homes sold very quickly. At the height of the frenzy (2021–early 2022), turnkey properties often went under contract in a matter of days.
Region-wide in 2020, the average days on market (DOM) dropped to just 19 days (down from 24 days in 2019) amid the buying surge. Reston was no exception: in competitive
periods, homes typically sold in around one month or less. Even as the market slowed slightly by 2023, Reston’s average DOM in October 2023 was only
15 days (down from 26 days a year prior), indicating buyers were still snapping up the limited inventory relatively fast. By late 2024, with higher interest rates,
time on market edged up a bit – Reston’s median DOM was 33 days (vs. 24 days the year before), and Fairfax County’s was 34 days (about the same as the
prior year) – but these figures remain low by historical standards.

The number of sales transactions did decline due to inventory constraints and buyer fatigue. In Northern Virginia overall,
only 15,958 homes were sold in 2023, down 21.8% from the 20,398 sales in 2022. Reston saw fewer listings and sales as well, reflecting many would-be sellers holding off
(often “locked in” to low interest rates on their current homes). Despite the drop in volume, prices stayed resilient because demand still exceeded supply. In fact,
active inventory in Fairfax County was so low that by the end of 2022 it was 23% lower than a year earlier for single-family homes, and even in 2023 any slight gains
in inventory were welcome news for buyers.

Buyer Demand and Competition Trends

Buyer demand in Reston and Fairfax County was robust throughout 2020–2024, though it evolved in intensity. During 2020-2021, demand spiked – fueled by
low mortgage rates, telework-driven moves, and millennials entering the market – leading to bidding wars on many properties. Homes in Reston in 2021 often received
multiple offers and sold above asking price. According to Redfin, Reston’s market has been “very competitive,” with an average of 3 offers per home and many selling
~1% over list price. At the peak, “hot” listings in Reston could sell in around 7 days for ~3% over list on average. This competitive fever was echoed county-wide.
For example, in late 2023, 37.8% of homes in Fairfax County still sold above list price. Even in October 2023, Reston homes garnered 100.5% of asking price on
average, effectively full price, showing that well-priced homes continued to attract eager buyers.

However, buyer behavior did shift as interest rates rose. In the latter half of 2022 and through 2023, some buyers became priced out or more cautious, leading to fewer
offers per listing. The Redfin Compete Score (which rates competitiveness) still ranks Reston as 86/100, “Very Competitive”, meaning the area remains heated by
national standards. But compared to the frenzied 2021 market, 2023–2024 saw slightly less frenzy – for instance, average sale-to-list ratio in Fairfax County
was ~100.1% in Dec 2024 (just marginally above asking), whereas in 2021 it was common for sale prices to be several percent over asking. In summary,
demand never evaporated; it only tempered. The underlying desirability of Fairfax County (jobs, schools, amenities) meant that
as soon as mortgage rates stabilized, buyers returned – evidenced by rising sales in late 2024 and NVAR’s expectation that “demand exists” and more buyers
will re-enter when conditions improve.

Economic Factors Influencing the Market

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

Mortgage interest rates played a pivotal role in the housing market’s trajectory. In the early pandemic years, aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts pushed 30-year
mortgage rates to historic lows (~3% or even lower in 2020–21), greatly increasing buyers’ purchasing power. These low rates were a
key fuel for the 2020 sellers’ market, as noted by local Realtors: “Historically low interest rates helped to fuel the 2020 seller’s market, driving prices up as
buyers competed for listings.” The ultra-cheap financing in 2020-2021 enabled many buyers in Reston and Fairfax to bid up prices while still keeping monthly payments manageable.

Starting in mid-2022, however, the environment shifted dramatically. Surging inflation (which hit ~9% nationally in mid-2022) prompted the Federal Reserve to hike
interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. Mortgage rates climbed above 5%, then above 7% by late 2022, crimping affordability. By early 2023, 30-year fixed rates
oscillated between ~6% and 7%, far above pandemic lows. For example, in spring 2024, rates jumped back above 7% for the first time since early Dec 2023. This rapid rise
roughly doubled the monthly mortgage cost for the same loan amount compared to 2021, pricing some buyers out and forcing others to lower their budget. The effect was
a notable slowdown in sales activity – as mentioned, Northern Virginia home sales in 2023 were down over 20% year-on-year due largely to the rate shock. Many
homeowners with ultra-low rate mortgages also delayed selling (preferring to keep their 3% loans), exacerbating the inventory squeeze.

Despite higher borrowing costs, home prices did not drop in Reston or Fairfax; instead, price growth just moderated. Stubbornly low supply and steady demand kept
a floor under values. Buyers adjusted expectations and “acclimated to… mortgage rates… in the 6% band” by 2024. The consensus heading into 2025 is that
as rates stabilize (even if around 6–6.5%, which is historically normal), more buyers and sellers will re-enter the market. In short, the rate environment moved from
an extraordinary tailwind (2020–21) to a significant headwind (2022–23), but the fundamental demand in Fairfax County remained.
Many households still need to move for life events and will transact once they adjust to the “new normal” of mid-range interest rates.

Employment and Income Trends

The economic backdrop in Fairfax County has been strong, which bolstered housing demand and buyer confidence. After a brief spike in unemployment during early 2020’s
COVID lockdowns, the job market rebounded quickly. Fairfax County’s unemployment rate hit 6.0% in 2020 but fell to 3.5% in 2021 and around 2.4–2.5% in 2022–2023,
returning to very low pre-pandemic levels. In fact, by 2022–2023 the county’s unemployment was nearly as low as 2019’s 2.3%, reflecting a robust recovery. Northern
Virginia’s economy – with its mix of federal government, defense contractors, tech companies (e.g. Amazon’s expanding presence, Google and Microsoft offices, etc.), and other
professional services – proved resilient and “more-or-less recession-proof.” Many high-paying employers continued hiring or at least retained workers through the
pandemic, resulting in rising incomes for many residents. (Reston’s median household income, for instance, is about $126,571, well above national average.)

This healthy employment climate supported the housing market in two key ways:
1) Job growth and low unemployment meant more people could afford to buy or rent housing (and fewer forced sales or foreclosures), and
2) High household incomes in areas like Reston provided a cushion against inflation. Even as consumer prices rose, many Fairfax County residents saw wage growth or
had savings that kept them in the market. Additionally, stable employment meant buyers felt confident making long-term investments in homes. In summary,
robust job and income fundamentals underpinned housing demand, preventing a downturn in prices even when interest rates jumped.

Inflation and Other Economic Factors

High inflation in 2021–2022 had a mixed impact on the housing market. On one hand, inflation eroded affordability – everything from construction materials to gas for
home showings became pricier. Construction cost inflation made new homes more expensive to build (limiting new supply), and everyday expenses cut into some potential buyers’ ability
to save for down payments. On the other hand, real estate is often viewed as an inflation hedge, and many investors and families piled into property knowing that
a fixed-rate mortgage can lock in housing costs even as prices rise. This mentality further fueled demand for homes during the inflation spike.

By late 2022, the Fed’s rate hikes started cooling inflation, but at the cost of those higher mortgage rates as discussed. Broadly, the Northern Virginia economy avoided
recession: GDP growth slowed but remained positive, and consumer confidence dipped only slightly. Population growth in Fairfax County has been modest but
steady (e.g., Reston’s population grew ~3% from 2020 to 2024), which provides a constant stream of housing demand. Lastly, telecommuting trends affected local real
estate: with more remote/hybrid work, some buyers sought larger suburban homes (boosting Fairfax demand), while others felt freer to relocate out of the area. On net, Fairfax County
benefited as a desirable suburban hub offering both urban-like amenities (especially in Reston Town Center) and single-family neighborhoods for those leaving denser cities. This made
Reston’s market particularly attractive during the pandemic – it offered a balance of walkable community and spacious homes, driving demand for its real estate.

Upcoming Developments and 2025 Outlook

Several major developments and infrastructure projects in and around Reston are slated for 2025 and beyond, which could influence home values and demand patterns.
Stakeholders should watch these closely, as they add amenities and economic activity to the area:

• Metro Silver Line & Transit-Oriented Development: The extension of Metro’s Silver Line has been a game-changer for Reston. The line’s Phase 2 opened in late 2022,
  adding stations at Reston Town Center (RTC), Herndon, and beyond. This has spurred new transit-oriented projects. For instance,
  “Reston Town Center Next” (RTC Next) is a major mixed-use expansion near the new Reston Town Center Metro stop. Expected to bring additional retail, dining, and
  office space, RTC Next is already signing tenants. By creating an extension of the existing Town Center closer to Metro, this project will likely
  enhance Reston’s appeal for buyers who value walkable amenities and easy Metro access to D.C.
• Reston Row – $1.3B Mixed-Use Megaproject: One of the largest upcoming developments is Reston Row, a 3-million-square-foot project adjacent to
  the Wiehle–Reston East Metro station. Anchored by Virginia’s first-ever JW Marriott hotel and luxury residences, Reston Row represents a $1.3 billion investment.
  It will include a 28-story hotel/condo tower, a 28-story apartment tower, and two new office buildings, all set for completion by fall 2025. Positioned near the Silver Line and
  Dulles Toll Road, this development will create a “new neighborhood” of premium amenities. While it may bring more density and traffic, it will also
  raise the profile of the area and likely drive up demand for nearby housing.
• Infrastructure and Civic Projects: Fairfax County continues to invest in road improvements (e.g., along Fairfax County Parkway, Route 7), expanded park facilities,
  and possibly new schools as population grows. While no single large-scale public project is slated for 2025 in Reston, these ongoing improvements help
  maintain quality of life. Plans for additional affordable housing in Reston are also in progress – the Reston Comprehensive Plan update (adopted Sep 2023)
  supports added density for workforce housing, which could slightly increase supply and moderate future prices.
• Policy Changes: The updated 2023 Reston Comprehensive Plan preserves existing residential densities in much of Reston’s neighborhoods while
  allowing higher-intensity growth near transit. This means Reston’s suburban character will remain in most areas, which should keep single-family home values high.
  Meanwhile, new mixed-use growth near Metro stations (Transit Station Areas) will help Reston continue maturing as a live-work-play community. County-wide,
  Fairfax County’s 2025 outlook is for gradual improvements in inventory, continued moderate price growth (~3%), and ongoing economic expansion (like Amazon’s HQ2 in
  Arlington) spurring job opportunities.

Bottom line: The 2025 developments – from Reston Row’s completion to the Reston Town Center expansion – are poised to boost Reston’s
appeal even further. New office, retail, and residential projects often lift property values by adding services and drawing attention to the area. Stakeholders should keep an eye on
these transformations, which can shift local demand (e.g., new luxury condos can create short-term competition but raise overall prestige). Overall, experts expect
2025 to bring a steadier market: slightly better inventory, sustained demand, and stable to modestly rising prices.

School District Impact on Home Prices

It’s often said in real estate that “schools sell homes,” and Fairfax County is a prime example. School district quality has a significant impact on home values
in the area, including Reston. Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) is highly regarded overall, but individual schools vary in rating. Families frequently compete to buy in top-ranked
school zones, pushing prices higher.

Research confirms a strong link between school performance and home prices. For example, homes in Langley High School’s district (a top-rated school)
have median values around $1.6 million, whereas homes in the district of South Lakes High School (Reston’s main high school) have median values around
$505,000. This shows how school ratings can create huge differences. Another analysis shows that people pay up to $270,000 more for a house in a
strong school district compared to a similar house in an average school district.

Reston’s situation: Reston is primarily served by South Lakes High School (often rated around 4/10) and part of Herndon High (3/10). Because these schools are mid-range
compared to top schools like Langley or McLean, Reston’s home prices remain a bit more affordable. Buyers who prioritize top-rated schools may choose places like
Great Falls or McLean, pushing those prices higher. Still, Reston’s schools benefit from being in Fairfax County, which invests heavily in education. Overall,
Reston’s moderate school ratings are factored in to its home values, but do not prevent it from remaining popular, especially among buyers who value its amenities and location
more than a top-tier school label.

Takeaway: School districts are major drivers of buyer choice in Fairfax County. Areas assigned to top-ranked pyramids can sell for hundreds of thousands
more than those with average ratings. This is one reason Reston is priced below certain parts of the county. However, it still attracts families looking for a good
overall school system, strong community features, and more home for their money.

Rental Market Trends (Reston vs. Fairfax County)

The rental housing market in Reston and Fairfax County has paralleled the for-sale market. As home prices climbed and interest rates rose, more people chose to rent.
Here’s a comparison:

• Rent Levels: Reston’s rents are slightly higher than the Fairfax County average. As of late 2024,
  the average apartment rent in Reston is about $2,512 per month. By contrast, the county-wide average rent is around $2,020. Reston has many newer,
  luxury apartments (especially near Reston Town Center and Metro stations) that push its average rent higher.
• Rental Growth: Rents increased notably during 2021–2022, fueled by tight inventory. In 2024, Reston’s average rent is about 7% higher
  than the previous year. Fairfax County’s average rent rose around 3.2% from 2022 to 2023. However, new apartment buildings are starting to open in areas like Tysons, Merrifield,
  and Reston itself, which eases pressure on supply and may slow rent growth moving into 2025.
• Reston vs. County Dynamics: Reston has a large share of luxury rentals, appealing to young professionals who want a walkable environment without
  living in D.C. Meanwhile, Fairfax County includes older, more affordable complexes in places like Annandale or Centreville. Both Reston and Fairfax County have seen rents hit record
  highs, but growth is expected to moderate as more units become available. If mortgage rates stabilize, some renters may transition to buying in 2025.

Rental Market Takeaways: Landlords in Reston benefit from high demand and relatively low vacancies. Investors face higher purchase prices but find strong tenant
interest, especially near transit. County-wide, rents will likely keep rising at a modest pace, but not as sharply as before. Reston remains a prime rental location for those valuing
its amenities or who aren’t ready to buy in an expensive market.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

Reston and Fairfax County’s real estate markets from 2020 to 2024 have been shaped by high demand, low supply, and steady price growth. Even with some moderation,
both markets remain strong. Below are the main points:

• Price Growth Slowed But Remained Positive: Over the past five years, home values in Reston and Fairfax increased by 20–30% overall. Growth was fastest in 2020–2022,
  then cooled by 2023–2024 to single digits. Reston’s median (~$589K) is below the county median (~$700K) but still at a historic high.
• Inventory Shortage Continues: Both Reston and Fairfax face extremely low housing supply, often under 2 months of inventory, which keeps the market tilted in favor
  of sellers. Buyers still compete for well-priced homes, and many listings sell quickly.
• Economic Strength Underpins Demand: Fairfax County’s thriving job market, high incomes, and desirable location keep housing demand high. Mortgage rates jumped from
  ~3% to ~7% in 2022–2023, slowing sales but not reversing price gains.
• 2025 Outlook: Major developments like Reston Row and the Reston Town Center expansion should make Reston even more appealing.
  Slightly more housing supply could come online, which might help buyers. Experts predict moderate price increases (~3%) and steady demand, barring big economic shifts.
• Schools Influence Home Values: Top-rated schools drive up prices in certain parts of Fairfax County. Reston’s schools are mid-tier, making it relatively more
  affordable, though still highly desirable for many.
• Renting Remains Popular: High home costs push many to rent. Reston’s average rent (~$2,500+) outpaces the county overall (~$2,000). With new apartments opening,
  rents may level off, but strong tenant demand is expected to continue.

Overall, the Reston and Fairfax County real estate markets have proven resilient through pandemic effects and interest rate changes. Looking ahead, both areas are
poised for continued (if calmer) growth. Buyers should be prepared for competition, while sellers can remain confident in steady demand. Developers and investors can look to
2025’s major projects in Reston for potential opportunities, as new mixed-use hubs often lift local property values. In the long run,
Northern Virginia’s economic strength, job market, and high quality of life suggest that real estate will stay in demand, and Reston will remain a sought-after place
to live, work, and invest.